Distribution Graph

When you run the risk analysis, Safran automatically generates a Risk Histogram for the finish date, start date, duration, and cost.

Safran Risk Histogram following a risk analysis.

The distribution graph is, by default, displayed for the entire project; however, you may choose to see the results as an activity or a summary.

When you select one activity, Safran shows only the histogram and the related information for that activity.

Example histogram displaying the finish dates for the selected activity.

If you have entered costs in the cost tab you will see two extra icons—one for the Schedule and one for the Cost. To see the results for the schedule, you click the Schedule icon, and to see the results for the Cost tab, you click the Cost icon.

Highlighted options for scheduling and cost in the ribbon menu.

The histogram bar width can be changed in the area above the graph. By default, the bar width is set to Automatic. For Finish Date, Start Date, and Duration, you can also set it to Minute, 15 Minutes, Hour, Day, Week, Month, Quarter, or Year, depending on your need. For cost, only automatic can be chosen.

Options for selecting the histogram bar width.

Information pane

Depending on which result type you select, either Finish Date, Start Date, Duration, or Cost, the information pane provides you with the information related to the analysis results. The information pane consists of four main areas:

Result Type of Product Part

Deterministic Value: The value from the schedule tab or the cost tab
Probability: The likelihood of achieving the deterministic value
Annotations

Here, the values of the arrow and curtain annotations are shown. See below for details on how to set them up.

Statistics

Minimum: The earliest (finish and start date) or lowest (duration and cost) value
Maximum: The latest (finish and start date) or the greatest (duration and cost) value
Mean: The mean value
Median: The median value
Standard Deviation: The amount of variation in days or cost
Mode: The bar value with the highest number of iterations. Note that this value might change when the bar width is changed.
Skew: Shows how symmetrical the date/cost distribution is in your model. In the skew in a symmetrical distribution = 0, right-sided asymmetrical distribution = positive skew, left-sided asymmetrical distribution = negative skew
Kurtosis: shows how the data distribution matches the normal (Gaussian) distribution. Kurtosis is 0 when the data distribution matches the normal distribution. Kurtosis is negative when the data distribution is flatter than usual, while it is positive when the data distribution is more peaked than normal

Analysis

Start Time: The time the analysis started
Run Time: The time it took for the analysis run.
Iterations: Shows how many simulations have been run against the current risk model

Model

Project: The name of the project
Project Timenow: The Timenow date of the project.
Activities: The number of activities involved in the analysis process
Risks: The number of identified risks

Suppose you would like to use the results from this analysis to compare against other scenarios or save these results for comparison later. In that case, you can send results to the Distribution Comparison report by clicking the 'Send to Comparison' button on the ribbon. You also can export the graph as an image or copy it to the clipboard.

Send a report for comparison.

More information on the 'Send to Comparison' function can be found in the 'Distribution Comparison' section.

Activity Tree

In the activity tree, you pick the activity or WBS you want to see the results. The tree will have the same content and grouping as the tree in the schedule tab. In other words, the activity list will change when you change the view (Outline View/Group View), the layout, grouping, and/or filter in the Schedule tab.

If you want to quickly filter it down further, click the Filter Icon.

Filtering option for the activity tree.

This gives you some textboxes in the ID and description columns to type in what you're searching for. As default, the filter will try to find rows that start with the text you're typing. For other options, such as finding rows containing text, you can click on the "Aa" symbol.

Another way to filter is only to show your focus activities. To do this, you just click the Focus Activities icon.

Target

If you want to know the probability of a particular value (e.g., a date in the Finish Date graph), you can select the "Set Target" check box and a value. When done, you will see the target displayed in the graph and the Information table.
Choosing a Target value in the distribution graph.

Lock X-Axis

By checking "Lock X-Axis," you can set the start and finish of the axis to some custom values. This can be useful when visually comparing different graphs.

Setting the Start and Finish value for the X-Axis.

Graph Options

You can set several properties for the graph, such as color and line width, in the Options pane.

Focus Percentiles

Safran Risk lets you set percentiles that display information about the output distributions. These can be set in the Options pane. The same percentiles can also be changed from the Sensitivity Analysis and the Distribution Comparison tabs.

Choose which percentiles to focus on.

Graph Annotations

There are two types of annotations that can be added to the distribution graph. Arrow and Curtain annotations. Arrow annotations visually connect a value on the x-axis to one on the y-axis; for example, they can show the probability of the deterministic value or a certain percentile. Curtain annotations highlight the difference between two values on the x-axis.

To add or modify annotations, you go to the Options pane. To add a new annotation, you click on the + to the right of Arrow Annotations or Curtain Annotations. To remove an annotation, click on the – next to that annotation. The values you can select in the From and To fields are Deterministic, Mean, and Percentiles, which you've set up under the Focus Percentiles section.

The annotations will be shown visually in the distribution graph and as values in the information grid.
Configuring graph annotations for the Distribution Graph.

Data View and Post-Analysis

By clicking on the Data View icon in the Distribution Graph, you can see the values from which the Curve and Histogram were created. The values are presented in a grid where each line is an iteration during the risk analysis. On each line, you can see that iteration's Finish Date, Start Date, Cost, and Duration. You can also see which risks impacted the plan during that iteration and how much.

The data view displays which risk has impacted the plan during a risk iteration.

Risks impacting the duration have a square and risks impacting the cost have a dollar sign. Red means that the impact was negative (longer duration / higher cost) and green means that the impact was positive. You can hover the mouse over a cell to see the exact value of the risk. A grey square will appear if the risk is set to impact independently. This is because the risk might have impacted activities differently during the same iteration.

If you want to see what the plan actually looked like during a particular iteration, you can click on the number in the leftmost column. This takes you to the schedule tab where the plan is shown as it was during that iteration. This can be a very efficient way of verifying that your risk model has worked as expected.

When you select an activity (or summary) in the tree on the left side, the values for that activity will be shown in the grid. The risk impacts will always be the same, whichever activity you select. However, the risks not impacting the selected activity directly will be greyed out.

If you want to use the data from this view in another tool you can click on export or copy data. Export data exports the data CSV file. Copy data copies it to the Windows clipboard in a format that you can paste into, for example, Microsoft Excel.