Probabilistic Cash Flow

Prev Next

Probabilistic Cash Flow

If you want to investigate how risks and uncertainty in your model affect your cash flow, the Probabilistic Cash Flow (PCF) is the report for you.

The report is hidden by default. To see it, open the Options dialog and ensure it is selected in the "Show" column.

Enable the Probabilistic Cash Flow report from the Options menu.

Enable or disable the Probabilistic Cash Flow report.

The source of the cost data

In Safran Risk costs can be modeled as resources in the Schedule or as cost elements in the Cost tab. You can create a PCF report using whichever method you are using. You will see two toggle buttons in the top right corner if both data types are available. Select the one that you want to use.

Select the source of cost data.

The PCF report

As long as the PCF tab is visible, the PCF report will always be produced after running a risk analysis. All the costs and dates necessary to create cash are gathered in each iteration. After the analysis, all cash flows are combined to create the PCF report.

There are several ways you can modify the report.

You can include costs from the whole project or a sub-section in the top right corner.

Modify the PCF report by including or removing costs from the entire project or parts of it.

You can select which results should be visible in the chart in the bottom right corner.

Select which results should be visible in the PCF report.

At the top of the chart, you have two settings.

"Set Start" allows you to set a start date for data collection. For example, if you are only interested in costs incurred after 2021, you put this to 1 January 2022.

The "Histogram Bar Width" lets you select the period you want.

The Chart

Results will be displayed for Deterministic, Mean, and Percentiles. The percentiles are based on the selected focus percentiles. You can see the periodic and cumulative cash flow for each data set. Note that periodic cash flow for percentiles will not add up to the cumulative cash flow.

The colors of any of the curves or histograms can be changed in the Options:

Configure the gantt chart of the PCF report.

The data view

To see the data displayed in the chart as numbers, you can click the "Data View" icon.

Example of the data view of a PCF report.

This data can also be exported to Excel by clicking the export icon.